I must admit that I was somewhat skeptical about predictions concerning the size of the demonstration planned for yesterday. In the past, there were so many calls for demonstrations that turned out to be small or medium-size gatherings of a few thousand. There was a lot of moaning about the Hungarian people’s inability or unwillingness to stand up for their rights. How often did we hear that Hungarians are sheep-like creatures who are ready to suffer any abuse as long as their leaders appeal to their nationalistic instincts? But the fact is that a fortuitous combination of factors has converged that offers an opportunity to change history. It might have taken Hungarians eight years and a third “sweeping victory” by Fidesz, but there are signs that the opposition will gain strength in the next months and years.
I know that this prediction strikes a lot of people as being without any foundation. My critics can certainly point to the practical collapse of all of the opposition parties, starting with LMP and ending with Jobbik and MSZP. These parties, the claim goes, are close to extinction; they will simply disappear just as MDF and SZDSZ, the two major parties of the 1990s, disappeared. There is no way they will recover, say the pessimists.
But there is another way of looking at the present situation. The defeat was so devastating and unexpected, the shock so great, that all politicians from left to right must have realized that their old ways cannot continue. The politicians of Együtt, having suffered the most humiliating defeat, have already realized that their party can no longer participate in Hungarian political life. Párbeszéd, thanks to Gergely Karácsony’s wise decision, found shelter within MSZP which, as things stand now, they have no intention of abandoning. It may sound cruel, but the disappearance of two small parties that were unable to attract a sizable number of followers and voters has made the opposition’s situation somewhat easier.
LMP was thoroughly shaken as a result of the party’s erroneous strategy, which may result in a thorough reevaluation of party’s attitude toward cooperation with others. If they don’t change course dramatically, their party might follow Együtt and Párbeszéd into oblivion. LMP must realize that a lot of people are very angry at them, and if they don’t want to lose their supporters they’d better change course in a hurry.
Ferenc Gyurcsány also miscalculated, thinking that separate party lists would help his party. This assumption turned out to be wrong. His optimistic scenario didn’t materialize, and his insistence on separate party lists didn’t work in DK’s favor. Given the few comments he has made since the election, it looks as if a reevaluation can be expected from those quarters as well.
Finally, there is Jobbik. We mustn’t forget that, next to LMP, Jobbik was the most adamant about winning the election on its own. Chairman Gábor Vona took this charge so seriously that he promised to resign from his post if he failed to become the next prime minister of Hungary. This was only slightly less ludicrous than Bernadett Szél’s talk about the “Szél government.” Surely, if the leaders of these two parties haven’t yet figured out that their strategies were responsible not only for their own parties’ failure but also for the shameful performance of all the opposition parties, they don’t deserve to survive.
So, optimistically, I predict that there will be major changes in every one of the opposition parties, especially since now, it seems, about half of the Hungarian population also insists on that change. This demand was expressed by the multitudes that gathered in Budapest yesterday.
What were the most encouraging signs from this demonstration besides its enormous size? First of all, it was organized by young people. One of the chief organizers was a 21-year-old university student. As a result, as opposed to earlier demonstrations, save the October 2014 rally against a proposed internet tax, the majority of the demonstrators were young people. This is an enormously important fact because we have been told time and again that young people are not interested in politics. They don’t know anything about it and they don’t care to learn either. Well, that assumption turned out to be wrong. Second, as opposed to earlier demonstrations, the aim of this one was more than sending Orbán packing. The people gathered to present certain demands. These included a recount of the ballots or even a new election. More importantly, they demanded a new, more equitable election law since the present system makes a functioning multi-party parliamentary system impossible. And that leads us to the people’s demand for the creation of a united opposition.
Reading descriptions of the mood at the demonstrations, I got the impression that Jobbik and left-of-center voters unexpectedly found themselves in the same crowd and in the first few moments didn’t know what to make of each other. As a journalist from Független Hírügynökség said, “yesterday’s demonstration was like a social science orgy. Sociologists, social psychologists, and political scientists will talk about it for a long time” and, using Willy Brandt’s by now famous statement, will inquire whether “what belongs together will grow together.”
Ágnes Kunhalmi (MSZP) with a young Jobbik demonstrator in a T-shirt depicting Vona / Origo
The decidedly leftist publication Abcúg also noted that “Orbán’s regime managed to bring together Jobbik voters and the liberals in one demonstration.” Although there are many areas where their positions are far apart, as one of the liberal participants said, “that is a matter of detail,” which can be ironed out later. Apparently, that was the reaction on the other side as well.
And what is the mood in Jobbik circles? I visited Jobbik’s news site, Alfahír, to see the reaction to the demonstration. Here is an opinion piece by András Harmati with the title: “The opposition to Fidesz is the country itself and the country is writing history.” The enormity of Fidesz and the Orbán government’s sins against the citizens of the country has managed to achieve what nobody thought possible: “it turned the whole country against it.” The message is that the government through an unfair electoral law and thousands of tricks stole the election and the country shouldn’t accept the results. “It seems that at last everybody recognized the truth, and that’s why more than 100,000 men and women, while professing different values, could demonstrate together, against an illegitimate government.”
Naturally, the government-sponsored media is full of condemnation of Jobbik and expresses regret that Jobbik has lost its radicalism. Most likely echoing the wishes of the government, they hope for the re-radicalization of the party by the extremist László Toroczkai, who expressed an interest in the post of chairmanship, replacing Gábor Vona. Origo bemoaned the fact today that János Volner, one of the deputy chairmen who has the reputation of belonging to the radical wing of the party, made it indirectly clear that he wouldn’t support Toroczkai’s bid for the chairmanship. 888 quoted Krisztina Morvai, a former Jobbik MEP, who finds it “stomach turning to see Jobbik’s leaders marching together with those leaders and followers of DK, MSZP, and SZDSZ who were responsible for blinding demonstrators on those very streets where we had to inhale the tear gas of Gyurcsány and Bajnai for eight solid years during our national resistance.” I should add that Morvai, finding Jobbik’s turn toward the center unacceptable, swore allegiance to Fidesz. As a result, Jobbik took her mandate away. I’m really curious whether Fidesz will dare to add an outlandish extremist right-winger to its parliamentary delegation in the European People’s Party.
So, this is where we stand now, after the euphoric demonstration. It is the time for the opposition parties to follow through and create a viable, winning alternative to the Orbán government.