Yesterday, a few minutes after the discussions between representatives of MSZP-P-DK and LMP had ended, based on limited information, I could report only that MSZP-P-DK had rejected negotiations with Jobbik. They are convinced, we learned, that the left-of-center parties alone can prevent Fidesz from forming a government. The only positive outcome of the meeting was that the parties present assured each other of their refusal to contemplate a coalition with Fidesz in the event of an electoral defeat of the government forces.
I expressed my doubts about the claim that the left-of-center parties could capture 25-30 electoral districts, wondering about the source of their optimistic assessment of the situation because the data I consulted sure didn’t indicate such strength.
Well, now I know the source. Republikon Intézet today made public their “estimates” because, as they emphasize, their charts don’t reflect “research,” only estimates. Based on conjectures, Republikon came to the conclusion that all 18 Budapest electoral districts can be won by left-of-center parties and that the presence of Jobbik in these districts will actually weaken Fidesz. So far so good; I agree. But Republikon’s other estimates are to my mind far too optimistic. According to them, Jobbik can win seven districts while MSZP-P-DK can capture 16 outside of the capital. I have problems with both numbers. I doubt that the left-of-center parties can win 16 districts, and I believe that Jobbik’s possibly winnable districts are underestimated. In addition to the seven districts noted by Republikon, there are several districts where Jobbik poses a serious challenge to the Fidesz candidate.
And here is where an excellent article on the pitfalls of opinion polls in general provides a useful antidote. The by-election of Hódmezővásárhely showed the difficulties of making reliable predictions in the present Hungarian political environment. The reason for unreliable results, polling experts claim, is the presence of a great number of voters who are in hiding. Fewer and fewer people are ready to answer the pollsters’ questions, and those who do answer often purposely mislead the pollsters.
A large part of the article is about the experience of Iránytű, the only polling company that forecast the victory of Péter Márki-Zay in Hódmezővásárhely. Iránytű’s experience has been that, despite what other pollsters claim, hiding is a very serious problem. Therefore Iránytű compensated by using methods that made the necessary correction. One was asking questions that didn’t ring any kind of political alarm bell with the respondent but that gave clues about the person’s opinion of the independent candidate. Pollsters who don’t take into consideration the general fear of retribution by the powers-that-be will most likely produce less than reliable polls.
The tendency for voters to hide their party preferences may in the long run prove that the opposition forces have more firepower in reserve than the polls currently indicate. A few years ago Jobbik voters hid their attachment to the party because of its bad reputation. Today left-of-center voters hide their true feelings mostly because of a fear of the kind of Fidesz overlordship that existed and to a certain degree still exists in Vásárhely.
As I said, I think Jobbik will do a great deal better than Republikon Intézet anticipates, but the left-of-center parties might still have a chance if LMP realizes that they will have to withdraw their candidates in those crucial districts where their presence might prevent the victory of the opposition. In 2014, 12 districts were lost to Fidesz because LMP refused to withdraw its candidates. Today these numbers might be even higher. Therefore, an understanding between LMP and MSZP-P-DK concerning the former’s withdrawal from all districts where their presence threatens a left-of-center win is a must. However, at the moment I don’t know how much LMP is willing to give.
After seeing Bernadett Szél’s interview on Hír TV’s “Egyenesen” on March 15, I breathed a sigh of relief. I saw a woman who for first time in the last eight years finally realized that unless LMP sits down with all the other opposition parties and reaches an understanding, Fidesz will remain in power and that, in that case, all opposition parties will face a serious existential threat from Fidesz and the government. Earlier this seemingly intelligent woman kept repeating that LMP with its measly 4-5% of the votes would form a government alone. At that time I thought that, when it came to cooperation with the other left-of-center parties, Szél was a lost cause. After the interview, however, I changed my mind and decided she might be a crucial player in the forthcoming negotiations. Then I wasn’t so sure. Finally, I believe I understand her position, however untenable it is. The two seemingly contradictory stances are in fact sequential.
Szél, for some strange reason, held a forum in Vienna on Sunday where she announced that she was not thinking in terms of a coalition either with Jobbik or with the MSZP-P-DK bloc. She wants an LMP government. How? According to her, democracy must be restored first, and then a new election must be held. “If we lived in a democracy, I wouldn’t have to sit down with Gyurcsány and Vona to discuss electoral deals; after all, we are political antagonists.” So, it seems, first the opposition ousts the Orbán government; then, in a new election, LMP wins outright.
I don’t think I have to dwell on Bernadett Szél’s absurd assessment of her own party’s strength. But her characterization of her “political antagonists” is noteworthy. She said that “Gyurcsány and Vona are not in the same category (súlycsoport) because Gyurcsány is largely responsible for Orbán’s two-thirds majority while the sincerity and seriousness of Vona’s turnabout (pálfordulás) is questionable.” I’m not sure how to interpret this sentence. Are the two men equally reprehensible, simply in different ways? Or is Gyurcsány’s past more reprehensible than Vona’s possibly phony conversion?
Meanwhile, we are learning more about the actual “negotiations” between MSZP-P-DK and LMP. According to Gyula Molnár, chairman of MSZP, LMP’s demands for cooperation were unacceptable. Of course, Molnár was talking about Szél’s insistence that Jobbik be brought into the conversation even though Vona and other Jobbik politicians have been making it clear that they don’t want to negotiate with MSZP-P-DK. As things stand now, even if Karácsony-Molnár-Gyurcsány were ready to negotiate with Jobbik, it is most unlikely that Jobbik would accept the invitation. Considering the size of their support, I’m not really surprised at their confidence. Gyurcsány was more specific. He claimed that LMP arrived at the talks without any concrete suggestions and ideas and was unable to spell out LMP’s conditions for cooperation.
To close today’s post, I’ll mention an incident that is all over the government media. Gábor Vágó, who is old enough to know better, accused his hosts, Gyurcsány and/or Molnár, of being already drunk before the negotiations began. After the meeting, he complained about the somewhat dry biscuits (pogácsa) that DK served to the guests, adding that “If I’m drunk and invite friends to my house, the least I can do is offer them whiskey.”
A few facts about Gábor Vágó, who was one of the founders of LMP but who, in 2013, when the party split, decided to continue his parliamentary work as an independent. The following year he gave up politics altogether and even left the party. At that point he decided that his real calling was to be an investigative journalist, and he worked in that capacity for Átlátszó between 2014 and 2017. A couple of months ago we learned that Vágó will be the LMP candidate in electoral district #1 of Bács-Kiskun County. Given the data available on this district, I’m afraid Vágó will have to look for another job. He will not win the district, and he has the 67th slot on LMP’s party list.
As far as the gravitas of some Hungarian politicians is concerned, I think the photo below is telling. DK uses four differently colored guitars to represent, I assume, the multi-faceted nature of their party. Péter Ungár, son of Mária Schmidt and a bigwig in LMP, and Gábor Vágó had amused themselves before negotiations began. Ungár is the one who became so drunk at the picnic Momentum organized that he ended up in the tents of others, boys and girls alike. He was thrown out of the camp by security guards.
Clik here to view.
Gábor Vágó and Péter Ungar entertain themselves. Csaba Molnár, deputy chairman of DK, looks on, seemingly amused
What can one say? And these people want to lead the country to a better future.