Even as the leaders of MSZP-P, DK, and LMP met to work out a strategy for an electoral victory, I looked at the projected results in all 106 districts. The exercise took me about two hours, but by the end I had a much clearer view of the electoral chances of the democratic forces.
A couple of days ago I was quite optimistic about the meeting Ferenc Gyurcsány proposed, to which he invited Gergely Karácsony of MSZP-P, Bernadett Szél of LMP, and Gábor Vona of Jobbik. I welcomed the initiative because I’m one of those who are convinced that without some arrangement with Jobbik Viktor Orbán cannot be defeated. So, I was very curious about any agreements that were reached while I was counting votes in the electoral districts. And indeed, there were already some reports out by the time I finished. The first one to catch my eye was Mariann Katona’s article in Magyar Nemzet, “One cannot beat the government from the left.” This is what Bernadett Szél told the journalists who were waiting for news after the meeting. According to reports, MSZP and DK politicians are convinced that an agreement with LMP would be sufficient for an electoral victory.
I must admit that I’m thoroughly confused. Since Ferenc Gyurcsány made his unexpected announcement about negotiations with Jobbik, he gave several interviews in which he explained his moral anguish about sitting down with Jobbik. It is the denial of everything he stood for in the past. It wasn’t an easy decision, he emphasized, but it had to be done. Yet, according to Szél, at the meeting “Ferenc Gyurcsány made it clear that he is unwilling to cooperate with Jobbik.” What’s going on? Some commentators believe that Gyurcsány is making a distinction between “negotiations” and “talks.” He is ready for the latter but not the former. But here again we face problems of interpretation since the word “tárgyalás” means both “negotiations” and “talks.” Is this just a distinction Gyurcsány is drawing in order to save face?
Source: Népszava
My reason for wading through the election projections was my curiosity as to why Viktor Orbán is so afraid of the possibility of only one “Soros henchman” facing a Fidesz candidate. Looking at the data, I came to the conclusion that Fidesz would have every reason to be worried at such an eventuality: there is practically no electoral district where the Fidesz candidate couldn’t be beaten if all the supporters of the opposition parties would stand behind the one candidate who has the best chance of beating the mostly incumbent Fidesz representatives. Such an arrangement could result in a rout of the governing party.
However, outside of Budapest and a couple of districts in Csongrád and Baranya, and one in Veszprém County, MSZP-DK is nowhere. LMP might possibly win two districts, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This means 22-24 districts out of 106. According to Magyar Nemzet, Karácsony, Molnár, and Gyurcsány feel confident about 25-30 districts. But even assuming the best case scenario, winning 30 districts out of 106 is not a formula for defeating Fidesz. I’m afraid I side with Bernadett Szél this time. In my estimation, an electoral arrangement arrived at only among the left-of-center parties is not enough to win the election. Nowhere close.
What surprised me most in my research was the strength of Jobbik in the great majority of the districts, not just in the underdeveloped and poor counties in the east and on the Great Plains. There are electoral districts even in Veszprém, Somogy, and Fejér Counties where in the event of the withdrawal of MSZP-DK-LMP, Jobbik could easily win against the Fidesz candidate. The same is true in János Lázár’s district in Csongrád. Then there is the whole county of Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, half of Hajdú-Bihar, and Heves. In all these places Jobbik is very strong. The impression I got was that the nationwide opinion polls, showing that Jobbik would get 17-19% of the votes, don’t accurately reflect the real district-by-district strength of Jobbik. Although the Jobbik leadership refuses any kind of cooperation with MSZP-DK, in fact the party would greatly benefit from such an arrangement since in many districts their candidates are the strongest challengers of Fidesz. But they cannot win without the withdrawal of the left-of-center candidates.
I assume that the politicians of MSZP and DK know the statistics much better than I do. Therefore I’m not taking their statements at face value at the moment, especially since Karácsony was still talking about “taktikai szövetség,” which again is a tricky concept since “szövetség” can mean either “association” or “alliance.”
LMP-Jobbik negotiations will take place tomorrow, and I trust that the “talks”—if Ferenc Gyurcsány insists on the term—will continue.