The civic organizers who were the foremost promoters of holding primaries expressed their strong belief, from the very start, in the beneficent nature of the enterprise. They hoped, as it turned out correctly, that the very sight of people standing in line to express their political opinions would awaken people’s interest in politics in general and would boost political participation.
As it turned out, the primary election did a great deal more than that. For one thing, it upended the party structure of the opposition. With the victory of Péter Márki-Zay, a reorganization of the present party structure is unavoidable.
My impression is that the first party to go will be Párbeszéd, which defines itself as a green party. The fall of its co-chair, Gergely Karácsony, will probably put an end to this mini-party, despite the fact that its five individual representatives have done a yeoman’s job in parliament.
Párbeszéd was created in February 2013 by eight members of parliament who left LMP. They left because András Schiffer, the founder of the party, and his followers refused to join “Together 2014,” an electoral alliance of opposition parties led by Gordon Bajnai. Now, after a successful electoral alliance has been achieved and Schiffer has been out of politics for a long time, these two parties may well get back together, forming a more robust green party, which Hungarian politics badly needs. A flow of MSZP politicians to DK and vice versa indicates that ideologically these two parties are still close, but at this junction we cannot say more. I’m confident, however, that even if nothing happens before the elections, eventually we will see a lot of organizational changes taking place on the left.
Another favorable outcome of the primaries was more willingness on the part of the electorate to declare their political orientation. Earlier, pollsters repeatedly complained that a large segment of the electorate refused to divulge their party preference. During the primary process, 800,000 Hungarian citizens were willing to openly declare their loyalty to the anti-Orbán opposition. The fear lifted. This was true even in small villages.
The new political enthusiasm generated by the primaries and the increased openness hitherto unknown in Hungarian politics naturally brought with it a tangible change in support for the opposition forces. The most recent opinion poll was just published by Závecz Research. Data collection took place between October 11 and 19, that is, during the primaries. Therefore, I wasn’t terribly surprised that, for the first time this year, there was the beginning of a shift in the balance between the two political blocs in favor of the opposition.
In the past months, it mattered not how often pollsters measured the strength of the opposing groups, the opposition’s lead was only 1-2 percentage points, which was statistically insignificant. This time, the gap was 4 percentage points. From September to October, the opposition gained 1 percentage point, from 38% to 39%, and Fidesz lost 2 percentage points, from 37% to 35% of the voting population. Unfortunately, undecided voters still represented 23% of the sample.
I was also cheered by the regional breakdowns. Although we all know that the citizens of Budapest are solidly behind the opposition, 58% for the opposition and 24% for Fidesz is a breathtaking divide. In county seats, although the results are not that sensational, a difference of 10 percentage points is nothing to sneeze at (43% to 33%). In other provincial towns, Fidesz still leads by 38% to 34%, and in villages, Fidesz does even better: 39% to 32%. But we have to keep in mind that, given financial constraints, the organizers of the primaries couldn’t hold in-person primaries in many of these places or, if they did, the opportunities were limited to one or two days of voting.
Závecz Research also measured support for each of the opposition parties among the committed voters. I will start with the truly small ones: Párbeszéd (3%) and LMP (2%). As it stands, however, Momentum (4%) and MSZP (7%) are not much better off. DK added support during the primary campaign and now stands at 19%, with Jobbik at 14%. But Fidesz remains the largest party, with 47% of the active voters supporting it.
Perhaps the most annoying “party” is MKKP (Two-Tailed Dog Party), whose allegedly funny chairman, Gergely Kovács, is one of my least favorite “politicians” in the opposition camp. MKKP started out as a “joke party,” but over time it became less and less amusing. The leaders of the party, which was established in 2006 and officially registered as a political party in 2014, have refused to cooperate with the other opposition parties. At the last national election in 2018, it received 98,758 votes (1.79%) and no parliamentary seats. A year later, the party participated in the European Parliamentary election and received 2.62% of the votes and again no mandate. In the same year, it participated in the municipal elections in the II, VII, XIV, and XV districts in Budapest. Currently, four MKKP representatives serve as council members in the II, XII, XIV, and XV districts. There is fear in the opposition camp that MKKP will once again go it alone at a time when every vote counts. Závecz currently measures MKKP’s strength at 1% of the electorate.
Members of MKKP are engaged in their favorite pastime, patching streets with art.
It looks as if even Márki-Zay is worried about MKKP. According to Gergely Kovács, he approached the MKKP party leader with a deal. He was offered a sure-bet place on the common list for his support of the common cause. There are several districts where the difference between the government and opposition forces is so close that wasted MKKP votes may make a difference. Naturally, Kovács refused.
I must say I don’t share the worries of those who seriously fear MKKP because I’m convinced that those young people who considered this joke party the embodiment of disillusionment with parties and politics have already found a new idol in Péter Márki-Zay. Those who are familiar with the Hungarian language should listen to a brief video of intelligent young men and women talking about Márki-Zay, whom a young woman described as a true saint. These youngsters will not fall for the increasingly less funny jokes of MKKP, whose last “peace march” was something of a flop.
October 28, 2021
Blog posts by Eva S. Balogh also appear in Hungarian at https://ujnepszabadsag.com/