I think it is almost inevitable that political configurations among the opposition will change considerably between now and 2022, when a new national election will be held. It will be a slow process, but as the number of parties on the left shrinks, a consolidation is practically preordained. The first party that will most likely disappear is LMP, especially if its founder, András Schiffer, gives a few more interviews like the one that appeared recently in Magyar Nemzet, in which he announced that “although at the moment it seems that the opposition can even defeat Fidesz, this conglomerate is not capable of governing.” He added that as a result of the elections, everyone can now see that there is democracy in Hungary. I think LMP will end ingloriously, similar to the final agonies of SZDSZ under Attila Retkes and Viktor Szabadai between 2009 and 2013.
There are many questions about the survival of Párbeszéd, despite Gergely Karácsony’s individual achievement. He proved himself to be an effective campaigner, but I would be very surprised if too many voters could name the party to which he belongs. Párbeszéd’s support is so small that public opinion polls have measured it at one percent for well over a year. Given this stagnation, it is unlikely that Párbeszéd, just because one of its leaders became mayor of Budapest, will be able to grow significantly anytime soon. As support for the larger parties, Momentum and DK, gains ground, the few active politicians of Párbeszéd will most likely find a place in another party.
As far as MSZP is concerned, I have my doubts about its survival in the long run as a separate entity. Just today I listened to Ágnes Kunhalmi, who as usual was very optimistic about the future, emphasizing the cyclical nature of MSZP support. In the past, these cyclical fluctuations were manageable, but now a cycle may have been replaced with a downtrend. When the electorate voted strictly on party lines during the European Parliamentary elections, MSZP did very badly. Perhaps the biggest blow MSZP suffered lately was László Botka’s departure from the party, even though it was no secret that the relationship between Botka and the MSZP leadership had been strained ever since 2017, when Botka, the highly successful mayor of Szeged, became the party’s candidate for the premiership. Nonetheless, it was somewhat of a surprise that Botka entered the race for the mayoralty not as a member of MSZP but as the candidate of a new association called Partnership for Szeged (ÖSZE). Once Botka defeated his “independent,” Fidesz-created opponent by an enormous majority (60.56% to 36.41%), he didn’t join the MSZP caucus (frakció) but decided to sit with ÖSZE. A day later, he resigned his membership in the party.
What will happen to them next?
Once there is one desertion, usually more follow. Norbert Trippon naturally is not as well known as Botka, but he was considered to be an important member of the MSZP team in Budapest. At one point, he was deputy mayor of Újpest (District IV). Today, he announced that he is leaving the socialists and will continue his political activity in DK. He offered ideological reasons for joining DK, but I suspect that Trippon sees the writing on the wall as far as his long-term chances as an MSZP politician are concerned.
And that leads me to an interview with István Hiller, one of the founders of MSZP and a real authority in the party. He was interviewed by Györgyi Szöllősi, a new addition to the ATV team. She joined ATV after she lost her job at Hír TV, where I thought she did an extraordinary job. Szöllősi asked Hiller about the possibility that MSZP and DK will join forces one day. Hiller didn’t answer in the affirmative, but he didn’t say “no” either. He simply replied that the question at the moment is not on the table. I should note that I don’t see a fusion between the two parties in the foreseeable future because there is too much bad blood. But I don’t think one can rule out the possibility of several MSZP politicians on an individual basis transferring their allegiances to DK or even Momentum.
Finally, there is the matter of the joke parties, most notably the Two-Tailed Dog Party. I have to confess that I have never found Gergely Kovács, chairman of the party, personally funny. His responses often seem robotic. Admittedly, some of the party’s stunts were amusing, but as time went by, I started to dislike Kovács’s attitude and what he stood for. One expects a middle-aged man or woman to comprehend that there is no such thing as a perfect party or a perfect regime. In his particular case, he should able to grasp that in today’s Hungary the real enemy of democracy is Fidesz and not the other parties in the opposition. One could laugh at their jokes, but when they took votes away from perfectly respectable opposition candidates in close races, I was furious. My hope is that with the strengthening of the opposition forces there will be fewer and fewer people who are ready to waste their votes on the Two-Tailed Dog Party.
As for Jobbik, I have no idea what will come of the party. Just like in MSZP, Jobbik lost a leading member, its former chairman, Gábor Vona. He resigned from the party. The current party chairman, Tamás Sneider, is a mediocre character who was barely visible during the campaign. Péter Jakab, the spokesman of the party, strikes me as an energetic young man committed to democratic principles. He vied for the chairmanship, but it seems that internal resistance stood in his way. The party postponed a vote on the chairmanship. Jobbik, just like MSZP, lost a few percentage points of support in the last month. If in the future smaller alliances were formed in place of the present setup, I have no idea where Jobbik would end up. But I’m certain that party consolidations will start to take place in the next year or so.