The closer we get to the Hungarian election, the more eager politicians have been to give interviews. In the last two days we heard from the leaders of the three major left-of-center parties: Gergely Karácsony (MSZP-P), Bernadett Szél (LMP), and Ferenc Gyurcsány (DK).
Optimistically, I will concentrate on how the candidates described what they would do following a victory by the opposition forces. Given the present political situation, we can pretty well rule out a victory by any single opposition party. It is also unlikely that the medium-sized and small left-of-center parties could muster enough votes to form a left-of-center coalition government. The same is true of Jobbik. This is the situation opposition politicians must face. But some of the less seasoned politicians seem to have odd notions about what would await them if the election produced a majority for their party, for the left-of-center opposition, or for the left-of-center plus Jobbik.
Perhaps the most confusing interview of the three was Karácsony’s. Of course, a politician, especially in the throes of an election campaign, must be optimistic, but to say that on April 9 he will bike into the office of the prime minister is going too far. This may have been a joke–or may not have been. Later in the interview he admitted that the MSZP-P list would get only about 20% of the votes. But, combining that 20% with the wins by the other left-of-center parties, he hopes to have the necessary number of seats (101) to form a Karácsony government. I don’t know how that can possibly work out mathematically.
Karácsony also left out a few crucial variables from the equation. He will have to negotiate with the other left-of-center parties, which may not be as easy as he tries to make it sound. Moreover, at this juncture no one knows whether, even if Viktor Orbán is defeated, MSZP will be in the commanding position when it comes to forming a government.
Karácsony also seems to have an unrealistic view of Jobbik’s strength. Even though Jobbik didn’t win a single district in 2014, this doesn’t mean that the party will repeat its sorry performance in 2018. In fact, all estimates show that in certain parts of the country it will win big. Karácsony is convinced, however, that the left is much stronger than Jobbik. He said he would wager money on that.
The reporter was most interested in finding out what he thinks of the situation in which Jobbik and the left would have to sit down and negotiate because otherwise they would have no chance of securing the majority of the seats. Karácsony simply refused to entertain that possibility. To his mind, the “ideal situation” would be for the left to have an absolute majority and, together with Jobbik, a two-thirds majority. In brief, Jobbik would support his government from the outside. In this case, “one, two, three” they will be able to entirely change the current political system.
Although it was difficult to move Karácsony from his dream world, the reporter didn’t give up easily and asked him again about his willingness to negotiate with Jobbik in order to form a coalition government. This time, he came up with an answer. If the electorate decided that way, the country would need a “national crisis government.” This is an unfortunate turn-of-phrase; such a government is usually called a “government of experts.” That is, a cabinet made up of non-politicians. He ended the exchange on future governance by saying that a Jobbik-left government can be imagined only in theory, but he added, somewhat surprisingly, that “this would still be better than the present political system.”
Bernadett Szél, who has been repeating that LMP will alone replace Viktor Orbán and his regime, seemed a great deal more realistic today. By now, she is trying to achieve the best possible position for LMP, and she knows that she will not be prime minister in the foreseeable future. On the other hand, when it comes to cooperation, she is unmovable. Will she be a member of the Karácsony government? As far as she is concerned, “Gergely Karácsony can form a government with whomever he wants,” but she won’t be in it. What about Vona’s government? The answer was unexpected: “I have refused that already.” So, the Jobbik-LMP negotiations must have touched on that possibility.
When it comes to practical considerations, Szél also seems lost when it comes to what would be required in case the fractured opposition wins the majority of the seats in parliament. She thinks that, after the opposition parties’ victory, their “first task is the restoration of democracy in Hungary. This is what must be done.” Indeed, the resurrection of Hungarian democracy is a must, but first the winners have to hammer out a workable coalition government. Then, they can start dismantling the existing political system. During this time, I’m afraid, the “caretaker prime minister,” whether Bernadett Szél likes it or not, will be Viktor Orbán. I couldn’t believe my eyes when I read in her ATV interview that “if Fidesz becomes a minority party, then Viktor Orbán cannot be the prime minister for a minute.” One would have thought that Gergely Karácsony’s mistake and the reactions to it would have taught other politicians a thing or two about the transference of power.
Szél’s final word was that her party is not planning to participate in any coalition talks, and no arguments offered by the reporter could move her from this position. In fact, at the very end of the interview Szél expressed her still lingering hope that LMP just might win the election. “There might be huge surprises. There are the numbers, but I feel incredible tension under the surface. There might be landslide results here.”
Ferenc Gyurcsány’s most recent interview took place yesterday. Questions again clustered around what the future will bring. What will the opposition parties do if they get the majority of the votes and the parliamentary seats? The first question was whether he would endorse the formation of a Karácsony government. Actually, the reporter most likely knew the answer to this question because Gyurcsány for months has been telling everyone who asked that “if the democratic opposition wins, then the representatives of the democratic opposition will engage in coalition negotiations, which then will designate the prime minister.” The second question was about the so-called “government of experts,” which is a favorite with some of the voters. Again, Gyurcsány’s position is that “if the parties of the democratic opposition by themselves achieve a majority, then a government made up of politicians will be formed.” If that is not the case, because of the huge ideological gap between Jobbik and the democratic opposition, a “government of experts” might be the solution. That government would have a limited mandate with a limited tenure.
Since Karácsony in his interview ruled out the possibility of Ferenc Gyurcsány being a member of the new government, the reporter naturally asked Gyurcsány’s position on the issue. Answer: “If the democratic opposition is in the majority, then the coalition talks will decide the person of the prime minister and the composition of the cabinet.” Finally, the reporter inquired why Gyurcsány in a radio conversation said that new elections would have to be held in the event of protracted coalition negotiations. The answer to this question is obvious. “A situation may occur in which nobody has a majority and the opposition cannot agree on a government of experts. In that case, the president has no other option but to declare that a new election must be held.”
In this interview Gyurcsány offered no opinion on collaboration or cooperation with Jobbik. However, ten days earlier he talked at some length about the position of his party on this issue. “For the time being, according to an earlier decision, we are not cooperating. But I’m less and less sure that we shouldn’t at least talk. We don’t have to agree with them in all 106 districts because that wouldn’t make sense. But there are some districts where mathematically it would make sense. The dilemma is whether politically it is permissible to do so or not.”
Three politicians expressing three quite different views. At the moment these are the choices the democratic opposition can offer the voters.