One thing is certain. The next 40 days will be full of excitement, disappointment, exhilaration. People interested in politics are not going to have a dull moment.
Election campaigns are usually full of unexpected twists and turns even without such a political bombshell as the municipal election held in Hódmezővásárhely last Sunday.
Prior to the Fidesz rout Sunday, the left-of-center opposition had taken some small incremental steps toward improving their chances in the national election. A few days ago only LMP and Momentum stood by their irrational decision to go it alone.
On the right, Viktor Orbán had convinced his comrades that the sure path to victory was through the demonization of George Soros as the agent of a borderless world that would destroy Hungary’s ethnic and cultural identity. Meanwhile, Gábor Vona of Jobbik, an extremist right-wing party a few years ago, was slowly reshaping his party, to the point that by now most observers consider Fidesz the party of the far right and not the former anti-Semitic and anti-Roma Jobbik.
Many respectable liberal public figures—for example, Ágnes Heller, György Konrád, and Ferenc Kőszeg—had expressed their hope that Jobbik on the right and the parties on the left could agree on a limited, strategic cooperation that might result in the defeat of Fidesz. These people argued that Fidesz in power was a far more dangerous force than Jobbik with its 15-20% support nationwide. The chief goal, they argued, is the removal of Viktor Orbán and Fidesz from power, and for that tactical cooperation between the two sides is necessary.
This is exactly what happened in Hódmezővásárhely. Moreover, in the last few days we learned that it was the local Jobbik politicians who persuaded Péter Márki-Zay to run in the first place. Mind you, since then we also found out that László Botka, the MSZP mayor of nearby Szeged and former MSZP candidate for prime minister, gave Márki-Zay helpful advice on campaigning. And now that he has won, Botka will give him tips on how to handle a city council where Fidesz is in the majority.
The Vásárhely scenario cannot be replicated nationwide, and not just because of the unwillingness of the parties to cooperate. It is already too late for that. The only thing they can do is to quietly withdraw their weaker candidates in favor of the most electable. There are some signs that the success of Vásárhely made quite an impression on the left-of-center parties, and I haven’t given up hope yet on Jobbik’s pragmatism.
What are the signs? The greatest surprise is Momentum, whose somewhat rash and inconsistent leader, András Fekete-Győr, announced that they are ready to cooperate with anyone, including Jobbik. I was also astonished to see how quickly Bernadett Szél discovered that it is to the advantage of her party to accept a deal that would allow them to receive a few safe districts. Gábor Török, a political analyst, pointed out today that if LMP doesn’t win in any of the districts, which is a likely scenario, it will receive 5-6 seats from the party lists. This is exactly what happened in the past. But if LMP withdraws its candidate in 30-40 districts and in return receives five safe districts, the party can double its presence in parliament. My joy over Szél’s announcement was somewhat marred by her pettiness when she announced that she is ready to cooperate with anyone except the Demokratikus Koalíció. I don’t think that now is the time to play such childish games.
Ferenc Gyurcsány, on the other hand, who is a pragmatist, asked one of his deputies, Csaba Molnár, to begin negotiations with LMP. In his view, negotiations between LMP and MSZP cannot be conducted without DK’s participation because of these two parties’ earlier agreement on coordinated districts.
In return for the willingness of LMP and Momentum to negotiate with his party, Gábor Vona announced that he is ready to negotiate with them about a coordination of candidates. On the other hand, Jobbik has no intention of withdrawing candidates in favor of MSZP, DK, or Együtt. The same is true, at least at the present, when it comes to these left-of-center parties. They are adamantly against Jobbik, which Ferenc Gyurcsány called a wolf in sheep’s clothing. The question is how long they will stick to their guns.
I see signs that Hódmezővásárhely is forcing these parties to reconsider their current position. Let me start with Ferenc Gyurcsány, who a day after the election in Vásárhely answered several questions about DK’s attitude toward Jobbik. His answer was ambiguous. He now thinks that “if the other opposition parties sign an agreement with Jobbik, then one must think about a possible understanding” with Vona’s party. He added that a portion of the electorate would vote for anyone as long as the result is the removal of Viktor Orbán from office. On the other hand, there are others who would refuse to support left-of-center parties that cooperate with Jobbik. “This is an infinitely difficult, complicated, moral, and political dilemma which one may have to rethink after the election in Hódmezővásárhely, but I want everybody to understand that there are certain principles to which one must adhere in politics.”
Viktor Szigetvári of Együtt, immediately after the Hódmezővásárhely results were tallied, announced that if the “opposition” can agree on “one candidate in each district” the national election can actually be won. “Even a two-thirds majority is possible,” he added somewhat optimistically. He repeated the same today on Hír TV. I ought to add that Szigetvári has crunched a lot of numbers while analyzing possible electoral results under the present system, and therefore his opinion matters.
Although during the day I read many opinions about the coming election strategy of Fidesz, I’m not at all convinced by the majority view that Fidesz will continue its Soros-bashing and anti-migrant propaganda with even greater vehemence than before. As we know, predictions often go off target. For example, Gábor Török on February 19, prior to the Hódmezővásárhely election, said in an interview that Fidesz, because of its consistent political communication and its large treasury, will most likely be able to hold on to its voters. “Because of the large support of Fidesz, the rupture of the central force is not expected.” In Orbán’s vocabulary, “central force” means the division of weak left and right opposition parties, with Fidesz holding on to a large center position. Today, after the election, Török told 24.hu that “it is not Fidesz that failed, but the central force has been weakened.”
Indeed, in an election campaign a single day’s event can make a huge difference, and therefore we don’t know what the next five weeks will bring. I am keeping an open mind. Anything can happen between now and April 8.